- Speed Figures: These numerical ratings quantify a horse’s speed in past races, allowing you to compare performances across different tracks and conditions. Higher speed figures generally indicate better performance, but it’s crucial to consider the context of those figures, such as track condition, distance, and class level. Analyze speed figures in relation to the track condition (fast, muddy, sloppy), distance of the race, and class level of competition. A high speed figure earned in a muddy track sprint against lower-class horses might be less impressive than a slightly lower figure earned on a fast track route against top-tier competition.
- Winning Percentages: Analyze the horse’s win percentage, both overall and at the specific track and distance of the upcoming race. A high win percentage can indicate consistency and a greater likelihood of success. Consider the number of races the horse has run. A horse with a high win percentage in a small sample size might be less reliable than a horse with a slightly lower win percentage but a larger number of races.
- Top-Three Finishes: Consider the horse’s percentage of top-three finishes, which provides a broader view of its consistency and competitiveness, even in races it didn’t win. Analyze the types of races where the horse achieved top-three finishes. Consistently placing in high-class races is a stronger indicator of ability than placing in lower-class races.
- Earnings: A horse’s earnings can reflect its overall quality and success in higher-stakes races. Consider the horse’s earnings in relation to the number of races it has run and the types of races it has competed in. A horse with high earnings in a small number of high-stakes races might be a top contender, while a horse with similar earnings spread across many lower-stakes races might be less impressive.
- Trainer Win Percentage: Analyze the trainer’s win percentage, both overall and at the specific track. A high win percentage can indicate a skilled trainer who consistently prepares horses for success. Consider the trainer’s specialization. Some trainers excel with sprinters, while others specialize in training stayers (horses that excel at longer distances) or horses on specific surfaces (turf vs. dirt).
- Jockey Win Percentage: Consider the jockey’s win percentage, their experience at the specific track, and their past performance with the specific horse or trainer. Some jockeys have successful partnerships with certain trainers or excel at specific riding styles. Analyze the jockey’s performance in similar races. A jockey with a high win percentage in claiming races might not be as successful in stakes races.
- Jockey-Trainer Combinations: Look for successful jockey-trainer combinations, as their familiarity and teamwork can contribute to a horse’s performance. Track the win percentage of specific jockey-trainer combinations, especially at the specific track and distance of the race.
- Track Bias: Some tracks have biases that favor certain running styles or post positions. Analyze past race results to identify any track biases that might influence the outcome of the race. Track biases can change depending on the weather conditions and track maintenance. Stay updated on current track conditions and any recent changes to the track surface.
- Distance Specializations: Some horses excel at specific distances, while others are more versatile. Analyze a horse’s past performance at different distances to identify its optimal distance range.
- Surface Performance: Consider the horse’s performance on different surfaces (dirt, turf, synthetic). Some horses have a clear preference for certain surfaces.
- Class and Form Ratings: These ratings provide a standardized measure of a horse’s ability, allowing you to compare horses across different classes and races.
- Pace Figures: These figures indicate how fast a horse runs in different parts of a race, helping you assess early speed and closing ability.
- Historical Data Analysis: Analyze historical data to identify trends and patterns, such as the impact of weather conditions, post positions, or layoff time on race outcomes.